February 13, 2012

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2012: 40, 39, 38, 37, 36

Also in this series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35.

40. Kyle Waldrop | Reliever | DOB: 10/85 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2004-1

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2009     A+     20      0     3.09      35.0      43      0      20      7
         AA     31      0     1.46      55.2      51      2      30     18
2010     AAA    59      0     2.57      87.2      89      5      60     20
2011     AAA    56      0     3.87      79.0      84      7      44     18

Kyle Waldrop wasn't added to the 40-man roster following a standout season at Triple-A in 2010. He went unpicked in the Rule 5 draft that winter, returned to Rochester, had a worse season in nearly every possible way, and was added to the 40-man roster and called up in September. That doesn't make a ton of sense, even considering the Twins' injury wrecked roster last season, but does suggest that they view him as a potentially useful bullpen option.

Waldrop was a first-round pick back in 2004, shifted to the bullpen following shoulder surgery in 2008, and is already 26 years old, so there isn't much upside beyond what he's shown already. And that hasn't been particularly impressive, as his fastball typically resides in the high-80s and he's managed just 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings at Triple-A. That includes a measly 44 strikeouts in 79 innings there last season.

What he does well is throw strikes and keep the ball on the ground, which could be enough to make Waldrop a decent middle reliever if he can keep his strikeout rate from falling further against big leaguers. He induced 65 percent grounders in two years at Triple-A and anything above 55 percent in the majors qualifies someone as an extreme ground-ball pitcher. Waldrop will compete for a low-leverage role this spring and should get a chance to sink or swim soon.

39. Anderson Hidalgo | Third Base | DOB: 9/88 | Bats: Right | Sign: Venezuela

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2009     RK+    205     .291     .379     .469      6     19     25     38
2010     A-     315     .316     .375     .443      3     29     24     50
2011     A+     384     .274     .332     .395      6     29     27     65

Anderson Hidalgo's quest to become one of the shortest third basemen in big-league history at 5-foot-9 hit a snag last season, as he followed up a strong showing at low Single-A in 2010 by losing 100 points of OPS in the move to high Single-A. His raw totals were better than they look because the Florida State League as a whole slugged .386, but with just six homers and 29 total extra-base hits in 100 games his Isolated Power was slightly below league average.

Hidalgo got away with the lack of power in the past because he hit at least .290 in each of his first five professional stops, but his batting average dropped to .274 last season. Maintaining similar strikeout and walk rates suggest that Hidalgo wasn't overmatched at high Single-A, but then again he didn't make tons of contact or draw a bunch of walks to begin with. At age 23 there's still time for Hidalgo to develop, but his low-minors success no longer means much.

Among active big leaguers listed at 5-foot-10 or shorter only Placido Polanco, Chone Figgins, Nick Punto, Maicer Izturis, and Alberto Callaspo have 250-plus games at third base. Hidalgo lacks the speed and defensive chops to seamlessly fit into that group, but coincidentally or not his offensive upside could be pretty close. Polanco is the high end, Punto is the low end, and somewhere in the middle would be hitting around .275 with doubles power and a .725 OPS.

38. Dereck Rodriguez | Center Field | DOB: 6/92 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2011-6

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2011     RK-     98     .156     .216     .200      0      4      5     35

Named after his future Hall of Famer father, Ivan Rodriguez, junior goes by Dereck Rodriguez and was the Twins' sixth-round pick last year out of a Florida high school. Pudge is still trying to stick around at age 40 for a 22nd season in the majors, but he won't be able to hang on until his son is ready to join him. Dereck made his pro debut in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League and hit just .156 with zero homers and 35 strikeouts in 29 games.

While his MVP-winning father is one of the greatest catchers in baseball history, Rodriguez is an outfielder who saw time in all three spots during his debut. He does have his dad's arm, but he'll be trying to gun down runners at the plate instead of trying to throw them out from behind it. If he sticks as a position player, that is. Before the draft there was talk of some teams preferring Rodriguez as a pitcher because they liked his arm and questioned his bat.

For now there's no talk of the Twins encouraging a switch to the mound, but Rodriguez will have to show that he can hit following such an ugly--and albeit brief--debut at the plate. Rodriguez is 6-foot-1, but just 175 pounds and won't be 20 years old until June. Of course, by the time Ivan was 20 years old he was already in his second season as the Rangers' starting catcher, made his first of 16 All-Star teams, and won his first of 13 Gold Gloves. Good luck, kid.

37. JaDamion Williams | Right Field | DOB: 11/90 | Bats: Switch | Draft: 2010-10

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2010     RK-    124     .214     .279     .295      1      6     10     43
2011     RK+    212     .324     .406     .465      4     17     25     58

He was all tools and projection when the Twins took him out of a Florida high school in the 10th round of the 2010 draft, but JaDamion Williams showed last season that there's also a good baseball player beneath all the speed and athleticism. He struggled in his pro debut, hitting just .214 while playing primarily second base in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, but switched to the outfield while moving up to rookie-level Elizabethton last season and thrived.

He batted .317 with 17 extra-base hits, 25 walks, and 10 steals in 50 games, joining Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario in an Elizabethton lineup that scored six runs per game. Williams struck out too much, whiffing 58 times in 212 plate appearances, and the move to right field means he'll have to keep putting up big numbers offensively to make a significant impact, but as a toolsy 21-year-old that's certainly within reach.

Williams still hasn't faced full-season competition yet, so expectations should be held in check, but he'll make the jump to Beloit this year and is definitely someone to keep an eye on when checking low-minors boxscores. It'll be interesting to see if the Twins have completely given up on the idea of him playing the infield, because being even a passable option at second base or third base would dramatically alter his upside.

36. Tyler Robertson | Reliever | DOB: 12/87 | Throws: Left | Draft: 2006-3

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2009     A+     26     26     3.33     143.1     139      7     103     51
2010     AA     27     27     5.41     144.2     181     17      91     57
2011     AA     55      0     3.61      89.2      87      6      88     29

In the low minors Tyler Robertson looked like a future mid-rotation starter, but his strikeout rate deteriorated as he moved up the organizational ladder and injuries further pushed him off course, leading to the Twins shifting the 2006 third-round pick to the bullpen at Double-A last season. At the same level the previous season Robertson got knocked around for a 5.41 ERA and .308 opponents' batting average, but he performed like a totally different pitcher in relief.

Robertson appeared in 55 games and logged 90 innings with a 3.61 ERA and .252 opponents' average, inducing two ground balls per fly ball. He also had nearly as many strikeouts (88) in 90 innings as he did (91) in 145 innings as a starter, including a 41-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 35 second-half innings. In one year repeating Double-A he went from an afterthought left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft as a starter to added to the 40-man roster as a reliever.

However, while that's plenty encouraging Robertson's upside is still limited by mediocre control and underwhelming velocity. Those weaknesses are muted somewhat as a reliever, especially when spotted mostly against left-handed batters, but Robertson is far more likely to develop into a useful situational southpaw than an impact setup man. Hanging on to last year's success while moving up to Triple-A could put him in the Twins' bullpen mix by the second half.

  • Andrew Wachs

    Nice! I love this annual series. Nobody does it better.

  • Beau Wodele

    I really like this segment; no sugar coating. Though our prospects have seemed depressing as of late.

  • Sid

    OT, but why do you present pitching statistics with SO before BB, but hitting statistics with the conventional BB then SO? I’ve never seen pitching stats presented that way before (and I read a fair bit of baseball statistics), and I ALWAYS find it disorienting every time I see it here until I calibrate my brain. I’m not criticizing necessarily, just genuinely curious…

  • Todd L

    This batch of prospects remind me of the heady days of Bernardo Brito and Midre Cummings. It’s going to be a rough couple of years.

  • mike wants wins

    Nice summaries AG, thanks.

  • spoofbonser

    this is the prospect ranking I wait for every season!

  • Jeff

    I still crack up every time I see the Sgt Slaughter pic.

  • Eric

    AG stated, with Regard to Williams: “It’ll be interesting to see if the Twins have completely given up on the idea of him playing the infield, because being even a passable option at second base or third base would dramatically alter his upside.”

    However, since three prospects that will presumably appear much higher on this list will be manning 2B (Rosario), SS (Michael), and 3B (Sano) at Beloit there won’t be much opportunity for Williams in those positions anyway.

  • Dave

    Where’s JAIRO PEREZ! How can you leave out Jairo “The Gyro” Perez!?!? I’m mostly kidding about my disgust of Jairo’s absence, I just wanted to be the first to complain about something on this list. Keep up the good work. Looking forward to the rest of the prospects!

  • maxisagod

    With Rosario moving from CF to 2B, that would open Center Field JaDamion Williams. With his speed, ability to hit for AVG, and hitting in front of two of the Twins best prospects, he could put up some great numbers this year.

  • http://twinkietown.com SHS

    IN RESPONSE TO DaVE above ^^^

    Jairo Perez comes in at #34 overall LOL

    chill out man.